Ecuadorians head to the polls today to vote in presidential and legislative elections that have been overshadowed by political assassinations and violence driven by criminal organizations vying for control of the country’s drug trafficking routes. Nearly 100,000 troops will be dispatched to ensure public safety and order across Ecuador on election day, Ecuador’s government says.
It was more than a week ago when presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, a former journalist known for being outspoken on corruption, was slain as he left a campaign event. Several politicians have been killed this year, but Villavicencio’s death has pushed the country’s problems to the global stage. Preliminary evidence suggests the suspects arrested in connection with his killing are members of organized criminal groups.
On the eve of the vote, another candidate, Otto Sonnenholzner, said a shooting took place close to where he and his family were having breakfast. Sonnenholzner, a former vice president who resigned in July to run for the presidency, said he was not injured but denounced the attack as an attempt to intimidate him and his supporters.
A country in crisis
Villavicencio’s death highlights the Andean country’s sharp transformation. Only a few years ago Ecuador was seen as a place of relative security compared to its neighbors Colombia and Peru, two of the world’s biggest producers of cocaine. A deadly escalation of violence in recent years, fueled by a cocaine boom in the region, has seen criminal gangs alter the landscape in Ecuador as they engage in high-level graft, extort businesses, overrun prisons, and murder anyone who gets in their way.
The violence and lack of economic prospects have led to many Ecuadorians opting to leave the country – some to its neighbors, others to the United States. Over half Ecuador’s workforce is in the informal economy, meaning that millions of people do not have a contract and benefit packages to rely on in hard times – a situation that was further exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, widespread discontent with the rocketing crime rates tanked the popularity of outgoing president, Guillermo Lasso, and paved the way for him to call for snap general elections for August 20, in which he is not a candidate. Lasso, a conservative businessman who narrowly won the 2021 election against leftist Andrés Arauz, has faced criticism for his handling of the health crisis, his austerity measures, and his inability to curb corruption and insecurity.
A tight race with no clear frontrunner
Anything could happen in today’s presidential vote, say analysts, who point to the killing of Villavicencio as potentially changing voters’ preferences. His demise could “shape results on Sunday,” said Laura Lizarazo, a senior analyst for the Andean region at political risk consultancy Control Risks, as voters who feel “completely unprotected, abandoned, unheard” amid the crimewave and economic uncertainty may feel compelled to use the ballot “as a means of emotional release.”
According to the latest polls, none of the 16 candidates running for president has more than 20% of voter intention. The top contenders are:
- Ximena Peña, from Lasso’s party Creating Opportunities (CREO), who is hoping to appeal to moderate voters with her pro-business agenda and her promise to continue Lasso’s vaccination campaign.
- Yaku Pérez, from the indigenous party Pachakutik, who is running on an environmentalist platform and has vowed to fight against mining projects and defend water rights.
- Gustavo Larrea, from the leftist Democratic Left (ID), who is a former ally of ex-president Rafael Correa and has pledged to restore social programs and renegotiate Ecuador’s debt with international creditors.
- Guillermo Celi, from the centrist SUMA party, who is a former congressman and has proposed to reform the justice system and create a national security council to combat crime.
- Otto Sonnenholzner, from the Alliance for Ecuador (APE), who is banking on his experience as vice president during the pandemic and has advocated for strengthening institutions and promoting tourism.
If no candidate obtains more than 50% of the votes or 40% with a 10-point lead over the closest rival, a runoff will be held on October 29 between the top two candidates.
A test for democracy and stability
The election is not only crucial for Ecuador’s future, but also for its region. As one of South America’s smallest countries, Ecuador has often been overshadowed by its larger neighbors Colombia and Venezuela, which have faced their own political and social turmoil in recent years. However, Ecuador’s role as a transit point for drugs and migrants has made it a strategic partner for the United States and other countries in combating transnational threats.
The election is also seen as a test for democracy and stability in Latin America, which has been hit hard by the pandemic and its economic fallout. According to a report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, the region has experienced a decline in democratic quality and an increase in social unrest and polarization in the past year.
The report warns that the upcoming elections in Ecuador and other countries, such as Chile, Peru, and Colombia, could be affected by low voter turnout, distrust in institutions, misinformation, and violence. It calls for strengthening electoral integrity, ensuring civic participation, and promoting dialogue and consensus among political actors.