The No. 14 LSU Tigers (1-1) will face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0) on Saturday, September 16, 2023, in their SEC opener at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. The Tigers are coming off a disappointing loss to UCLA in their season opener, while the Bulldogs survived a scare from Arizona in overtime last week. Both teams will look to make a statement in the competitive SEC West division.
LSU’s Offense Needs to Step Up Against Mississippi State’s Defense
The Tigers’ offense was held to 24 points and 378 yards by the Bruins, who exposed their weaknesses in the offensive line and the running game. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, a Heisman Trophy candidate, completed 26 of 46 passes for 330 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw an interception and was sacked four times. The Tigers’ rushing attack was nonexistent, as they managed only 48 yards on 25 carries, averaging 1.9 yards per attempt.
LSU will need to improve its offensive execution and balance against a Mississippi State defense that has been solid so far. The Bulldogs have allowed only 17 points and 267 yards per game, ranking 13th and ninth in the nation, respectively. They have also forced six turnovers and recorded seven sacks in two games. Mississippi State’s defensive coordinator Zach Arnett runs a 3-3-5 scheme that can confuse and pressure opposing quarterbacks with multiple blitzes and coverages.
Mississippi State’s Offense Has a New Identity Under Kevin Barbay
The Bulldogs’ offense has undergone a major transformation under new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay, who replaced Mike Leach after he left for Texas Tech. Barbay, who was previously at Appalachian State, has implemented a more balanced and run-oriented attack that contrasts with Leach’s famous Air Raid system. The Bulldogs have run the ball on 56% of their plays, compared to 32% under Leach.
Mississippi State’s running back Jo’Quavious Marks has been the focal point of the offense, rushing for 250 yards and three touchdowns on 43 carries, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He also leads the team with nine receptions for 77 yards. The Bulldogs’ quarterback Will Rogers has been efficient but not explosive, completing 34 of 51 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions. He has also been sacked five times.
Mississippi State will need to be more creative and aggressive against an LSU defense that has been vulnerable against the pass. The Tigers have allowed 318 passing yards per game, ranking 114th in the country. They have also given up seven passing touchdowns and only intercepted one pass. However, they have a talented defensive line led by Maason Smith, who had two sacks against UCLA after missing the season opener due to suspension.
LSU vs. Mississippi State: Prediction and Betting Odds
LSU is favored by 9.5 points over Mississippi State, according to BetMGM , DraftKings , Caesars , and bet365 . The over/under is set at 53.5 points. The Tigers have won four of their last five meetings with the Bulldogs, but they have only covered the spread twice in that span. The last time they played in Starkville, in 2021, LSU won 36-13 as a seven-point favorite.
LSU vs. Mississippi State is expected to be a close and competitive game, as both teams have strengths and weaknesses that could cancel each other out. The Tigers have the edge in talent and experience, but they also have more pressure to perform after their disappointing start. The Bulldogs have the home-field advantage and the momentum from their comeback win over Arizona, but they also have some question marks on offense.
Our prediction is that LSU will win by a narrow margin, but not enough to cover the spread. We expect a low-scoring game that will go under the total.
Pick: LSU -9.5 ( -110 via BetMGM , DraftKings , Caesars , bet365 ) ⭐⭐⭐ Under 53.5 ( -111 via BetMGM , DraftKings , Caesars , bet365 ) ⭐⭐⭐